China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%

A Chinese government agency said on Thursday that the situation regarding the current outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) is more serious than initially thought, estimating demand for soymeal will fall 5% as replenishment of pig stocks is “very low”. China’s National Grain and Oil Information Centre said in an emailed report that it had expected soymeal demand to fall almost 5% to 66.8 million mt this marketing year compared to last, mainly as a result of the outbreak.“The situation is more serious and the rate at which pig production capacity is falling exceeds our expectations. Farmers have greater concerns about the epidemic and have strong uncertainty about the prospect for pig farming,” the agency said.Outbreaks have been reported on more than 100 farms since August 2018, with many analysts predicting China’s pig population – estimated to be between 400-600 million heads – will fall by 15-30% this year as farmers become reluctant to breed the animals.Such poor margins have also hit demand for soybeans, with Chinese imports down 22% this marketing year (October through January) compared to last, although some of that decline will be attributed to a hike on imported soybeans from the US.