African Swine Fever in China: An Update

The damage of ASF has already significantly influenced China’s pork imports. After the initial tariff increase on US pork in April 2018 (Li 2018), pork exports to China reduced to a trickle. In December 2018, US exports to China started to pick up with 7,823 metric tons of pork exported by the first week of January 2019. After several weeks of zero exports, trade resumed with 17,215 metric tons exported in the second week of February 2019. The net sales of 23,846 metric tons in the first week of March was the third-largest weekly sale since USDA started publishing weekly country-specific export data. As of the writing of this article, the total commitment (total export+outstanding sales) of pork export to China is at 142,845 metric tons, almost five times the total export to China last year (Figure 3). Given the high tariffs, the Chinese government is likely behind these purchases, either by directly ordering state-owned firms to buy or by waiving tariffs. In this regard, we note that COFCO, a state-owned enterprise, did not pay a duty on imported soybeans destined for the state reserve.